Mumbai, 2003 to 2020You are viewing the Mumbai demo with data from 2003 to 2020. Create an account to save plans and export reports.
Summer heat across all 24 wards, 2003 to 2020.
Ward R/S, Kandivali
34.8°C
Hottest of 24 in summer
Stacked ensemble of 6 models fit to daily ward temperatures, 2003 to 2020. 500 simulated futures per ward carry weather, seasonal and year-to-year variability into the outlook.
Summer nights: Mean daily minimum, March to June, the city average
Summer nights rose +0.5°C a decade over 2003 to 2020. The 2015 to 2020 mean sat +0.6°C above 2003 to 2014, so a straight line is not the only reading. The ensemble weights a persistent recent level against the long-run average by how each predicted unseen years. For the city average, the median 2030 outlook is 24.1°C, against 24.1°C for 2003 to 2020 and 24.5°C for 2015 to 2020. Any single summer is likely between 23.2°C and 25.4°C.
Ward medians for 2030 span 0.6°C, far less than the 2.2°C width of a single ward's 80% interval. The order below is not robust. The data does not separate wards by future heat.
Source: ClimateReadyX analysis of daily ward temperatures, 2003 to 2020. 254 faulty ward-days removed. Changes are against the 2003 to 2020 mean. The outlook extends observed behaviour. It does not model future emissions, land use or teleconnections such as El Niño.
Measured to 2020. From 2021, the ensemble outlook: its median with the 80% interval, or one of its simulated futures.
2020
MeasuredQuintiles of all measured ward summers. Nights with a minimum of 27°C or above, March to June.
Source: ClimateReadyX analysis of daily ward temperatures, 2003 to 2020. Outlook from the backtested ensemble. It does not model future emissions, land use or El Niño.
Short walks through the demo, a few steps each.
Why Ward R/S tops the city in summer and where to start.
Start, 3 steps
Ward R/S, Hottest of 24, 6.9 lakh peopleHeat is close to average, but a quarter of the ward is informal housing.
Start, 3 steps
Ward L, 15th of 24, 9.0 lakh peopleA dense ward with heat and housing both above the city middle.
Start, 3 steps
Ward G/N, 11th of 24, 6.0 lakh peopleSource: ClimateReadyX analysis of daily temperature and ward data for Mumbai, 2003 to 2020. Placeholder values for design only.